I always like to say that if someone tells you what the weather is going to be like more than seven days from now, they are lying.
Now that may be a bit of an exaggeration. We do know that El Nino and La Nina events can foreshadow significant trends, and the advances in long range forecasting have been outstanding. But if you are looking for the accuracy that most people demand to help make decisions in their daily lives, then yes, seven days is a pretty good rule of thumb.
Now comes along a report out of Ireland, that scientists are now "forecasting" for the next seven years! The reality of it is, they are making more "climate predictions" than anything else. And the forecast is for cloudy, wet, rainy summers in Ireland for the through the year 2020.
Here is the thinking behind this projection: This past year was the wettest in 68 years and the coolest in 50 years. Normally waters off of the Emerald Isle are warm. Those warm waters put a great deal of humidity in the air through evaporation. Irish springs (just like the old soap commercials) are wet, but normally the jet stream pushes that moisture and those storms North of the Island.
But forecasters believe that the "mean position" of the North Atlantic jet stream will change, pushing south for the next seven summers, making Ireland all wet.
Care to place your bets or book your vacation?